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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%
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Polling & Methods

15.5K members+8.1% this month

Weighting, mode effects, likely-voter screens, and why two polls of the same race can be 8 points apart. The nerdiest circle on the platform.

Demonstration data — not a live government record
PR
Priya RamanQuant Analyst41m

Methods question for the feed: when a pollster switches from live-caller to online panel mid-cycle, what should aggregators do with the trendline?

♥ 156↩ 64⇄ 12
ML
Margaret LiaoMethodologist9h

PSA before tomorrow's poll drop: a 2-point move with a ±3.5 MoE is a headline that says 'SURGE' and a dataset that says 'nothing happened.' Practice saying 'statistically indistinguishable' in the mirror tonight. I believe in you.

♥ 521↩ 47⇄ 168
ML
Margaret LiaoMethodologist2d

New AAPOR mode-effects study is out and it's the most important methods paper of the cycle: online-panel house effects on approval questions run 2-4 points depending on attention screens. If you consume polling averages, this is your homework this weekend.

♥ 288↩ 43⇄ 102
PR
Priya RamanQuant Analyst3d

Your forecaster accuracy is lying to you. Calibration is the real score. Accuracy says how often you were right. Calibration says whether your 70%s hit 70% of the time. A forecaster who's right 80% of the time but only takes gimme markets is worse than one at 74% who prices genuine coin flips honestly. This platform scores both — check your profile — and the leaderboard weighs calibration for exactly this reason. Three habits that improved mine: (1) log your reasoning BEFORE checking the market price; (2) review every resolved miss within 48 hours; (3) never average your gut with the crowd after you've seen the crowd — that's not updating, it's anchoring. Full calibration-curve walkthrough in the thread.

♥ 924↩ 156⇄ 347
DW
Dana Whitfield5d

Design question for the platform (tagging the mods): should Community Notes on forecasting posts affect the author's calibration score, or stay reputational only? I can argue both sides and I'm genuinely torn. Best answer gets a repost.

♥ 342↩ 127⇄ 38
ML
Margaret LiaoMethodologist6d

Genuine methods puzzle: Pulse shows 83% support for the stock-trading ban, but the highest-quality probability sample I can find shows 76%. Both can't be the population value. What's your prior on civic-platform self-selection bias, and how would you design the correction?

♥ 264↩ 93⇄ 29

Featured Markets

Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?52%

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  2. Herding accusations require a specific numerical argument.
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