Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?
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- Another participant takes the opposite side.
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- Correct contracts settle at $1.00 · incorrect at $0.00.
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Video Briefing
What this market asks
In plain language: forecasters are estimating the probability that the outcome in the question actually happens by the deadline. The market currently prices 41% YES / 59% NO. Resolution is mechanical — it depends only on the criteria and sources below, not on opinions, headlines, or who "deserves" to win the argument.
- ▸ Only 4 of 12 appropriations bills have passed either chamber as of July, behind the 10-year average pace.
- ▸ A dispute over emergency supplemental spending has hardened positions in both caucuses.
- ▸ Two of the last five fiscal-year deadlines produced at least a brief lapse in appropriations.
- ▸ Continuing resolutions have averted most deadline standoffs — a clean CR remains the default path.
- ▸ Neither party's leadership wants a shutdown headline five weeks before the midterm elections.
- ▸ Appropriators have reportedly agreed on topline numbers, leaving only rider disputes to settle.
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if a lapse in appropriations causes any federal agency to begin a shutdown furlough (per OMB contingency guidance taking effect) at any point before 12:01 AM ET on October 1, 2026.
- Any participant may flag a resolution within 72 hours with cited evidence.
- Trading pauses; positions freeze at last price while flags are reviewed.
- An independent resolution council (rotating, disclosed members) rules within 14 days using only the stated sources.
- Rulings are published with full written reasoning; credits settle after publication.
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Discussion · 538 comments
LiveCommittee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
The NO side is about timelines, not merits. Even if the outcome eventually happens, the deadline in the criteria is doing a lot of work.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
The NO side is about timelines, not merits. Even if the outcome eventually happens, the deadline in the criteria is doing a lot of work.
The market is underpricing this. Base rates on comparable outcomes put fair value closer to 49%. Holding YES at 36 entry.
YES at 41% is the value side. When the resolution source is this mechanical, momentum in the underlying process matters more than commentary.
Fading the crowd here. "Continuing resolutions have averted most deadline standoffs — a clean CR remains the default path." That blocker has killed similar outcomes repeatedly — I have fair value near 31%.
YES at 41% is the value side. When the resolution source is this mechanical, momentum in the underlying process matters more than commentary.
Following this one closely. The resolution criteria are unusually clean, which is why participation is this high (15.6K forecasters).
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
This market pairs well with the related Pulse question — the gap between public sentiment and market probability is the interesting signal here.
The market is underpricing this. Base rates on comparable outcomes put fair value closer to 49%. Holding YES at 36 entry.