Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?
Peer-to-Peer Order Book
Live- A participant offers to buy or sell a contract at a price they choose.
- Another participant takes the opposite side.
- The exchange matches the orders and holds the collateral.
- Correct contracts settle at $1.00 · incorrect at $0.00.
- Fees are shown before any order is submitted.
What this market asks
In plain language: forecasters are estimating the probability that the outcome in the question actually happens by the deadline. The market currently prices 58% YES / 42% NO. Resolution is mechanical — it depends only on the criteria and sources below, not on opinions, headlines, or who "deserves" to win the argument.
- ▸ Ohio has voted Republican by 8+ points in each of the last three statewide federal races.
- ▸ The incumbent (Sen. Thomas Reed) holds a 9-point favorability edge in demonstration polling.
- ▸ The challenger's primary went to a runoff, draining early general-election funds.
- ▸ Midterm environments have produced Ohio upsets before when the national mood shifts late.
- ▸ An independent candidate polling at 6% draws more from the Republican coalition in crosstabs.
- ▸ Union-county turnout programs are better funded than in any recent cycle.
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if the Republican nominee is certified the winner of Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate general election by the Ohio Secretary of State.
- Any participant may flag a resolution within 72 hours with cited evidence.
- Trading pauses; positions freeze at last price while flags are reviewed.
- An independent resolution council (rotating, disclosed members) rules within 14 days using only the stated sources.
- Rulings are published with full written reasoning; credits settle after publication.
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Discussion · 287 comments
LiveYES at 58% is the value side. When the resolution source is this mechanical, momentum in the underlying process matters more than commentary.
YES at 58% is the value side. When the resolution source is this mechanical, momentum in the underlying process matters more than commentary.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
The NO side is about timelines, not merits. Even if the outcome eventually happens, the deadline in the criteria is doing a lot of work.
The market is underpricing this. Base rates on comparable outcomes put fair value closer to 66%. Holding YES at 53 entry.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
Following this one closely. The resolution criteria are unusually clean, which is why participation is this high (7.2K forecasters).
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
The NO side is about timelines, not merits. Even if the outcome eventually happens, the deadline in the criteria is doing a lot of work.
The market is underpricing this. Base rates on comparable outcomes put fair value closer to 66%. Holding YES at 53 entry.
Fading the crowd here. "Midterm environments have produced Ohio upsets before when the national mood shifts late." That blocker has killed similar outcomes repeatedly — I have fair value near 48%.
This market pairs well with the related Pulse question — the gap between public sentiment and market probability is the interesting signal here.