Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?
Peer-to-Peer Order Book
Live- A participant offers to buy or sell a contract at a price they choose.
- Another participant takes the opposite side.
- The exchange matches the orders and holds the collateral.
- Correct contracts settle at $1.00 · incorrect at $0.00.
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Video Briefing
What this market asks
In plain language: forecasters are estimating the probability that the outcome in the question actually happens by the deadline. The market currently prices 52% YES / 48% NO. Resolution is mechanical — it depends only on the criteria and sources below, not on opinions, headlines, or who "deserves" to win the argument.
- ▸ The current majority holds a structural edge in 14 districts rated Lean or Likely by major forecasters.
- ▸ Midterm turnout models favor the party with the older, higher-propensity coalition this cycle.
- ▸ Redistricting settlements since 2024 shifted a net of 3 seats toward the GOP baseline.
- ▸ The president's party has lost House seats in 19 of the last 21 midterm cycles.
- ▸ Generic-ballot polling averages have moved 2.4 points against the majority since March.
- ▸ Open-seat retirements are running 2-to-1 against the majority party in competitive districts.
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if Republicans win 218 or more seats in the U.S. House in the November 2026 general election, per certified state results. Party switches after election day do not affect resolution.
- Any participant may flag a resolution within 72 hours with cited evidence.
- Trading pauses; positions freeze at last price while flags are reviewed.
- An independent resolution council (rotating, disclosed members) rules within 14 days using only the stated sources.
- Rulings are published with full written reasoning; credits settle after publication.
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Discussion · 1.2K comments
LiveThe NO side is about timelines, not merits. Even if the outcome eventually happens, the deadline in the criteria is doing a lot of work.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
YES at 52% is the value side. When the resolution source is this mechanical, momentum in the underlying process matters more than commentary.
Fading the crowd here. "The president's party has lost House seats in 19 of the last 21 midterm cycles." That blocker has killed similar outcomes repeatedly — I have fair value near 42%.
YES at 52% is the value side. When the resolution source is this mechanical, momentum in the underlying process matters more than commentary.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
The market is underpricing this. Base rates on comparable outcomes put fair value closer to 60%. Holding YES at 47 entry.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
The NO side is about timelines, not merits. Even if the outcome eventually happens, the deadline in the criteria is doing a lot of work.
The market is underpricing this. Base rates on comparable outcomes put fair value closer to 60%. Holding YES at 47 entry.
Following this one closely. The resolution criteria are unusually clean, which is why participation is this high (24.5K forecasters).
This market pairs well with the related Pulse question — the gap between public sentiment and market probability is the interesting signal here.