Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?
Peer-to-Peer Order Book
Live- A participant offers to buy or sell a contract at a price they choose.
- Another participant takes the opposite side.
- The exchange matches the orders and holds the collateral.
- Correct contracts settle at $1.00 · incorrect at $0.00.
- Fees are shown before any order is submitted.
What this market asks
In plain language: forecasters are estimating the probability that the outcome in the question actually happens by the deadline. The market currently prices 71% YES / 29% NO. Resolution is mechanical — it depends only on the criteria and sources below, not on opinions, headlines, or who "deserves" to win the argument.
- ▸ A pending vacancy and a same-party Senate majority historically confirms within 70 days on average.
- ▸ The Judiciary Committee has already scheduled hearing dates for late summer.
- ▸ Recent confirmations have proceeded on near-party-line votes, reducing the need for crossover support.
- ▸ A 51-seat majority leaves no margin — two absences or defections could stall the floor vote.
- ▸ Election-year confirmations have twice been deferred to the lame-duck session or abandoned.
- ▸ An unexpected vetting issue could force a withdrawal and restart the clock past year-end.
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if the U.S. Senate votes to confirm any nominee to the Supreme Court of the United States between January 1 and December 31, 2026, per the Congressional Record roll-call vote.
- Any participant may flag a resolution within 72 hours with cited evidence.
- Trading pauses; positions freeze at last price while flags are reviewed.
- An independent resolution council (rotating, disclosed members) rules within 14 days using only the stated sources.
- Rulings are published with full written reasoning; credits settle after publication.
Related on Quorly
Discussion · 356 comments
LiveCommittee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
The market is underpricing this. Base rates on comparable outcomes put fair value closer to 79%. Holding YES at 66 entry.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
YES at 71% is the value side. When the resolution source is this mechanical, momentum in the underlying process matters more than commentary.
The NO side is about timelines, not merits. Even if the outcome eventually happens, the deadline in the criteria is doing a lot of work.
Following this one closely. The resolution criteria are unusually clean, which is why participation is this high (9.8K forecasters).
This market pairs well with the related Pulse question — the gap between public sentiment and market probability is the interesting signal here.
Fading the crowd here. "A 51-seat majority leaves no margin — two absences or defections could stall the floor vote." That blocker has killed similar outcomes repeatedly — I have fair value near 61%.
The NO side is about timelines, not merits. Even if the outcome eventually happens, the deadline in the criteria is doing a lot of work.
YES at 71% is the value side. When the resolution source is this mechanical, momentum in the underlying process matters more than commentary.
The market is underpricing this. Base rates on comparable outcomes put fair value closer to 79%. Holding YES at 66 entry.