Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34% 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58% 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41% 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52% 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71% 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22% 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47% 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62% 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44% 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58% 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68% 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24% 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36% 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74% 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34% 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58% 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41% 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52% 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71% 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22% 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47% 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62% 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44% 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58% 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68% 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24% 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36% 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74% 1%
Legislation Tracker
S. 2201In CommitteeCriminal JusticeCommerceTaxationPublic Health

Legalize and regulate cannabis at the federal level

Cannabis Reform and Regulation Act

Introduced
2
Committee
3
Passed House
4
Passed Senate
5
Law

Plain-language summary

AI

This bill would end the federal prohibition of cannabis and treat it more like alcohol: states keep the power to ban or allow it, while the federal government licenses interstate commerce, sets product-safety standards, and collects a 9% excise tax. It directs courts to expunge non-violent federal possession convictions and routes a share of tax revenue to small-business lending and law-enforcement grants. It does not require any state to legalize cannabis.

AI-generated explanation. Review the official text and official sources before drawing conclusions — summaries can omit important detail.

The strongest case on each side

Strongest argument for

Thirty-nine states already run legal cannabis programs that federal law technically criminalizes, forcing an all-cash industry that is dangerous to workers and impossible to tax cleanly. Federal regulation would align law with practice, standardize product safety testing, and stop imposing lifetime consequences for conduct most states no longer treat as a crime.

Strongest argument against

Descheduling ahead of settled science shifts long-term public-health risk onto the public: potency has risen sharply and the evidence base on heavy adolescent use is still maturing. A federal commercial framework would also seed a well-capitalized industry with strong lobbying incentives before states have fully evaluated the results of their own experiments.

Both cases are presented in their strongest form. Quorly does not take a side.

What it changes — and what it doesn't

What it changes
  • Removes cannabis from Schedule I; federal licensing for interstate commerce
  • 9% federal excise tax with revenue shared to small-business and law-enforcement grants
  • Expungement process for non-violent federal possession convictions
What it does NOT change
  • Does NOT require any state to legalize cannabis or open retail markets
  • Does NOT legalize sale to anyone under 21 or impaired driving
  • Does NOT change international drug-treaty obligations by itself

Timeline

  1. Sep 18, 2025
    Introduced in the Senate by Sen. Alexandra Morgan (D)
  2. Oct 2, 2025
    Referred to the Committee on the Judiciary
  3. Mar 24, 2026
    Subcommittee hearing on banking access for state-legal businesses
  4. Jun 11, 2026
    Full committee hearing; markup not yet scheduled

Discussion

3 comments
L
Liberty1776Top Forecaster3h

The committee calendar is the tell here. Watch whether a markup actually gets scheduled before the August recess — floor speeches are noise, markup dates are signal.

D
DataDrivenAnalyst6h

Cosponsor count has been the best single predictor in my model this cycle. Cross the ~200 mark in the House and passage odds roughly double, controlling for committee.

P
PolicyOracle1d

Worth reading the strongest-against section before taking a position — the implementation questions are where most bills like this actually stall, not the politics.

Sponsor

Official portrait of Sen. Elizabeth Warren
Sen. Elizabeth Warren
DDemocrat
44cosponsors
Senate Judiciary
Senate Finance

Community sentiment

Live
68%
of respondents support this bill
Support
68%
Oppose
24%
Not sure
8%

Public Pulse demonstration sample · not a scientific poll

Related forecast markets

Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?

58%
YES
18.2K forecasters
Forecasts use virtual Q Credits with no cash value. Market probabilities reflect participant expectations and can be incorrect.
Demonstration data — not a live government record