Will the School Mental Health Access Act pass the Senate before 2027?
Peer-to-Peer Order Book
Live- A participant offers to buy or sell a contract at a price they choose.
- Another participant takes the opposite side.
- The exchange matches the orders and holds the collateral.
- Correct contracts settle at $1.00 · incorrect at $0.00.
- Fees are shown before any order is submitted.
What this market asks
In plain language: forecasters are estimating the probability that the outcome in the question actually happens by the deadline. The market currently prices 49% YES / 51% NO. Resolution is mechanical — it depends only on the criteria and sources below, not on opinions, headlines, or who "deserves" to win the argument.
- ▸ Public Pulse shows 68% support for school mental-health funding across all tracked regions.
- ▸ The bill's counselor-grant formula was rewritten to satisfy rural-state objections in May.
- ▸ Sen. Alexandra Morgan has secured a unanimous-consent path if no holds are placed.
- ▸ Two senators have signaled holds over parental-notification amendments.
- ▸ Education bills are frequently bundled into year-end omnibus packages — a standalone vote may never occur.
- ▸ The House companion remains in committee, reducing urgency for Senate floor time.
Resolution criteria
Resolves YES if the School Mental Health Access Act (or a successor bill with substantially identical counselor-funding provisions) receives a passing vote on the Senate floor before January 1, 2027.
- Any participant may flag a resolution within 72 hours with cited evidence.
- Trading pauses; positions freeze at last price while flags are reviewed.
- An independent resolution council (rotating, disclosed members) rules within 14 days using only the stated sources.
- Rulings are published with full written reasoning; credits settle after publication.
Related on Quorly
Discussion · 143 comments
LiveCommittee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
Committee calendar update: relevant action is now scheduled. In backtests of this market class, a scheduled action adds ~6 points to YES within a week.
The market is underpricing this. Base rates on comparable outcomes put fair value closer to 57%. Holding YES at 44 entry.
Following this one closely. The resolution criteria are unusually clean, which is why participation is this high (4.9K forecasters).
YES at 49% is the value side. When the resolution source is this mechanical, momentum in the underlying process matters more than commentary.
The NO side is about timelines, not merits. Even if the outcome eventually happens, the deadline in the criteria is doing a lot of work.
Fading the crowd here. "Two senators have signaled holds over parental-notification amendments." That blocker has killed similar outcomes repeatedly — I have fair value near 39%.
The NO side is about timelines, not merits. Even if the outcome eventually happens, the deadline in the criteria is doing a lot of work.
YES at 49% is the value side. When the resolution source is this mechanical, momentum in the underlying process matters more than commentary.
This market pairs well with the related Pulse question — the gap between public sentiment and market probability is the interesting signal here.
The market is underpricing this. Base rates on comparable outcomes put fair value closer to 57%. Holding YES at 44 entry.