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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%

Jordan Ellis

Hill Watcher
@BeltwayBrief · VA

Ex-committee staffer. I read the schedule, the rule, and the whip notice before I read the coverage. Co-mod of Congress Watch.

11.2K followers233 following
Forecast accuracy
80%
Resolved predictions
142
Current streak
7
Q Credits
16,780
post12m

Rules Committee just noticed a Wednesday hearing on H.R. 1234. That's the first floor-adjacent movement on the stock-trading ban in 11 weeks. Watch whether leadership staff attend — that's the tell.

♥ 342↩ 87⇄ 96
analysis2d

Shutdown math, 90 days out: why 41% is a real number and not doom-posting. Four appropriations bills have passed one chamber; zero have passed both. The last five times we entered July with zero conferenced approps bills, we got two shutdowns, two last-minute CRs, and one omnibus. That base rate alone justifies ~40%. The bull case for avoiding it: leadership on both sides is publicly exhausted and privately negotiating a CR through December. The bear case: a September policy-rider fight (three candidates, all live). I make it 38-44% and the market at 41% is efficient. Sometimes the market is just right and the alpha is elsewhere.

Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES
♥ 558↩ 104⇄ 172
post5d

Congressional schedule note: 34 legislative days left before the August recess, 11 must-pass items, and one chamber is currently fighting about the naming of a post office. This is not cynicism, it's arithmetic, and it's why the credible bills are the ones with July committee dates.

♥ 594↩ 71⇄ 158

Calibration

84%calibrated

Calibration measures whether stated confidence matches real outcomes. Ten careful forecasts outrank a thousand careless ones.

Topic accuracy

Congress
86%
Legislation
82%
Demonstration data — not a live government record