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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%

Bob Tran

@BlueCollarBob · PA

Union electrician, Pittsburgh. Voted both parties in the last decade. I care about paychecks, pensions, and whether the bridge gets fixed.

5.1K followers290 following
Forecast accuracy
70%
Resolved predictions
51
Current streak
2
Q Credits
8,940
post12h

Watched the minimum wage hearing on my lunch break. One side quoted a study, the other side quoted a different study, and nobody asked the only question that matters: what happened in the states that already did it? We have 30 natural experiments and Congress debates like we have zero.

♥ 688↩ 174⇄ 129
poll2d

Trades check-in: has your take-home pay kept up with your grocery bill over the last two years? Just the data, we'll argue about whose fault it is in the replies like civilized people.

♥ 419↩ 187⇄ 56
position-update6d

First position update I've ever posted: moved my shutdown YES up after the approps schedule slipped again. Entered 36, it's 41 now. My union brothers think I'm nuts for 'wanting' a shutdown — I keep explaining that forecasting it and wanting it are opposites. Slowly converting the local.

Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES · 400 credits @ 36%
♥ 318↩ 52⇄ 27

Calibration

74%calibrated

Calibration measures whether stated confidence matches real outcomes. Ten careful forecasts outrank a thousand careless ones.

Topic accuracy

Economy
76%
Labor
81%
Demonstration data — not a live government record