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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%

Sarah Kowalski

Community Voice
@HeartlandMom · KS

Kansas mom of three, school-board regular, church potluck coordinator. Conservative on spending, practical on everything else. New to forecasting and loving it.

4.3K followers622 following
Forecast accuracy
73%
Resolved predictions
34
Current streak
3
Q Credits
9,870
question3h

Genuine question from a newer member: if 83% of people tell Pulse they support the congressional stock-trading ban, why does the market only give it a 34% chance of passing? Is the market wrong or is Congress just... not going to do the popular thing?

Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES
♥ 892↩ 267⇄ 145
post19h

Update on my first month forecasting: 4 resolved, 3 right, and the one I got wrong taught me more than the three I got right. I was SURE our school-funding measure would pass because everyone I know supported it. Turns out 'everyone I know' is not a sample. Lesson logged.

♥ 847↩ 92⇄ 133
post3d

My daughter's civics class used the representation-gap chart from this app in a lesson about how a bill becomes a law (or doesn't). The teacher's framing: 'popularity is an input, not a guarantee.' Better than the cartoon I grew up with, honestly.

♥ 542↩ 63⇄ 97

Calibration

69%calibrated

Calibration measures whether stated confidence matches real outcomes. Ten careful forecasts outrank a thousand careless ones.

Topic accuracy

Education
78%
Economy
70%
Demonstration data — not a live government record