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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%

Margaret Liao

Methodologist
@MoeMargaret · MI

Survey methodologist. My hill to die on: a 2-point move inside the margin of error is not a 'surge'. Co-mod of Polling & Methods.

5.6K followers240 following
Forecast accuracy
78%
Resolved predictions
74
Current streak
4
Q Credits
12,750
post9h

PSA before tomorrow's poll drop: a 2-point move with a ±3.5 MoE is a headline that says 'SURGE' and a dataset that says 'nothing happened.' Practice saying 'statistically indistinguishable' in the mirror tonight. I believe in you.

♥ 521↩ 47⇄ 168
evidence2d

New AAPOR mode-effects study is out and it's the most important methods paper of the cycle: online-panel house effects on approval questions run 2-4 points depending on attention screens. If you consume polling averages, this is your homework this weekend.

♥ 288↩ 43⇄ 102
question6d

Genuine methods puzzle: Pulse shows 83% support for the stock-trading ban, but the highest-quality probability sample I can find shows 76%. Both can't be the population value. What's your prior on civic-platform self-selection bias, and how would you design the correction?

♥ 264↩ 93⇄ 29

Calibration

90%calibrated

Calibration measures whether stated confidence matches real outcomes. Ten careful forecasts outrank a thousand careless ones.

Topic accuracy

Polling
89%
Elections
76%
Demonstration data — not a live government record