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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%

Tara Nguyen

Tech Policy
@TechPolicyTara · MA

AI governance researcher. Neither doomer nor booster — I just read the bill text. H.R. 88 section-by-section threads are my love language.

9.2K followers341 following
Forecast accuracy
80%
Resolved predictions
92
Current streak
5
Q Credits
15,420
analysis6h

H.R. 88 section-by-section: what the AI Accountability Act actually regulates. Most commentary treats this as a model bill. It isn't — it's a deployment bill. Sec. 3 covers only systems used in consequential decisions (credit, housing, employment, healthcare triage). Sec. 4 sets the audit regime and, as of the July 1 markup, a 10^26 FLOP reporting threshold. Sec. 7 is the sleeper: state-law preemption, which is why several state AGs from both parties oppose it while two industry coalitions support it. If you're forecasting m-ai-act, the fight isn't 'regulation vs. innovation' — it's federal floor vs. state patchwork, and that coalition math is genuinely uncertain. My section-by-section table is linked in the circle resources.

Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES
♥ 573↩ 102⇄ 187
poll3d

AI Regulation circle: which provision of H.R. 88 do you think matters most in practice? (Not which gets the most coverage — which changes behavior.)

♥ 231↩ 76⇄ 25

Calibration

87%calibrated

Calibration measures whether stated confidence matches real outcomes. Ten careful forecasts outrank a thousand careless ones.

Topic accuracy

AI Regulation
86%
Legislation
78%
Demonstration data — not a live government record