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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%

Victor Adeyemi

Immigration Attorney
@VisaQueueVic · NJ

Immigration attorney, 14 years. I track visa bulletin movement and asylum backlog data. Policy is math plus mercy — you need both columns.

4.4K followers320 following
Forecast accuracy
75%
Resolved predictions
54
Current streak
3
Q Credits
10,440
analysis1d

H.R. 410 is two bills wearing a trench coat — and that's why m-border sits at 62%. Title I is enforcement: detention capacity, technology, agent hiring. Title II is processing: asylum-officer surge, case-backlog triage, work-permit timelines. Coalition math: Title I alone loses 20 votes on one flank; Title II alone loses 30 on the other. Stapled together they clear both chambers with room to spare, which is exactly what the 62% is pricing. The risk isn't policy — it's an amendment strategy designed to peel the staple. Watch the rule: if amendments are unlimited, subtract 15 points from your forecast.

Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES
♥ 529↩ 114⇄ 168
post6d

Fourteen years of practice and my most reliable forecasting signal is still this: when an agency starts updating its FAQ page, the policy change is 60-90 days out. Bureaucracies telegraph everything if you read the boring parts. The boring parts are the whole job.

♥ 623↩ 68⇄ 194

Calibration

79%calibrated

Calibration measures whether stated confidence matches real outcomes. Ten careful forecasts outrank a thousand careless ones.

Topic accuracy

Immigration
82%
Demonstration data — not a live government record