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Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%Will Congress enact a ban on congressional stock trading before January 3, 2027?YES 34%▲ 3%Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES 58%▼ 2%Will there be a federal government shutdown before October 1, 2026?YES 41%▲ 5%Will Republicans keep control of the U.S. House in the 2026 midterms?YES 52%▼ 1%Will the Senate confirm a Supreme Court nominee in 2026?YES 71%▲ 2%Will a federal minimum wage increase be enacted before January 1, 2028?YES 22%▼ 1%Will Congress enact a comprehensive federal AI framework law before January 1, 2028?YES 47%▲ 4%Will a comprehensive border security bill become law before January 2027?YES 62%▲ 1%Will Democrats win control of the U.S. Senate in the 2026 midterms?YES 44%▲ 2%Will the Republican candidate win Ohio's 2026 U.S. Senate race?YES 58%▼ 3%Will the Federal Reserve cut its policy rate at the July 2026 FOMC meeting?YES 68%▲ 9%Will the NBER declare a U.S. recession beginning in 2026?YES 24%▼ 3%Will Medicare drug-price negotiation be expanded to 30+ drugs before 2028?YES 36%▲ 2%Will pandemic-era Medicare telehealth flexibilities be made permanent before 2027?YES 74%▲ 1%

Evelyn Cho

Policy Analyst
@PolicyOracle · DC

Twelve years reading committee markups. Legislation moves slower than headlines and faster than cynics think. I forecast the paperwork.

13K followers355 following
Forecast accuracy
82%
Resolved predictions
163
Current streak
6
Q Credits
19,340
analysis2h

Why the cannabis bill is ahead of schedule and the market hasn't noticed. S. 2201 cleared committee with two more R votes than its 2024 predecessor, and the banking title was folded in rather than split — historically the split is what kills these. Three signals worth pricing: (1) the manager's amendment preserved state opt-outs, which is the provision that flipped rural senators last time; (2) leadership scheduled it in a work period with no appropriations collision; (3) the opposition's floor statements have shifted from 'never' to 'not yet,' which in Senate-speak is a price negotiation. The 58% YES on m-cannabis feels 4-6 points light to me. The main risk is calendar crowding, not votes. I've published my full clause-by-clause in the circle wiki.

Will cannabis be federally legalized or descheduled before January 1, 2029?YES
♥ 687↩ 149⇄ 214

Calibration

89%calibrated

Calibration measures whether stated confidence matches real outcomes. Ten careful forecasts outrank a thousand careless ones.

Topic accuracy

Legislation
88%
Congress
85%
Healthcare
76%
Demonstration data — not a live government record